Tesla And The Fallacy Of Data-Driven Decisions

first_imgGuide to Performing Bulk Email Verification Matt Asay Tags:#Big Data#cars#Malcolm Gladwell#Tesla Related Posts The Dos and Don’ts of Brand Awareness Videoscenter_img We like to pride ourselves on being increasingly data-driven. In fact, we’ve created a giant new industry frenetically panning for Big Data gold. A healthy $4.5 billion market in 2010, according to IDC, Big Data is set to explode to $23.8 billion in 2016, fueled by our need to be more data-driven in everything from how we do business to how we eat.I suspect, however, that we’re fooling ourselves, as the recent Tesla debacle suggests. As much as we’d like to smugly pat ourselves on the back for being data-driven, the truth is that data is always messy, and never really tells any particular story.(See also Would You Buy A Tesla Model S?)Bigger Data ≠ Bigger AnswersNew York Times columnist David Brooks nails this in an op-ed piece, wherein he argues that Big Data, while very useful for guiding our intuitions, gets some things very wrong. Like the value of social connections. Or the context for answering a question. In fact, he speculates, Big Data might actually obscure Big Answers by complicating decisions and making it even harder to determine which statistically signifiant correlations between data are informative and not simply spurious.Such thinking won’t be surprising to anyone that has read Nassim Taleb’s book The Black Swan, which posits that the more data we analyze, the more likely our conclusions will be wrong. Taleb writes:In business and economic decision-making, data causes severe side effects – data is now plentiful thanks to connectivity; and the share of spuriousness in the data increases as one gets more immersed into it. A not well-discussed property of data: it is toxic in large quantities – even in moderate quantities.In other words, the more data you collect, the harder it can become to interpret that data. And even if you can interpret your data correctly, are you actually going to listen to that interpretation?Which brings us to Tesla. Tesla and “Truth”In case you’ve been hiding under a rock, a New York Times reporter, John Broder, wrote an unflattering review of Tesla’s new Model S. Tesla founder and CEO Elon Musk got the knives out and slammed the reporter using a pile of data (from the reporter’s test drive, which is a little bit creepy). Broder responded with his own view of the data, and finally Margaret Sullivan, public editor of the Times, waded in. Her conclusion?People will go on contesting these points – and insisting that they know what they prove — and that’s understandable. In the matter of the Tesla Model S and its now infamous test drive, there is still plenty to argue about and few conclusions that are unassailable.But wait! What about all that data Musk collected? Doesn’t it prove his point? Or what about Broder’s own data? Doesn’t it prove his? In both cases the answer is “Yes,” leaving would-be Tesla buyers like ReadWrite’s Dan Lyons stymied as to what they should do. Which is why being “data-driven” is the start of a solution, not the end. The Human Side of Big DataAs David Brooks notes, reviewing Malcolm Gladwell’s book, Blink, “We have the capacity to sift huge amounts of information, blend data, isolate telling details and come to astonishingly rapid conclusions, even in the first two seconds of seeing something.” This is not to suggest that we shouldn’t collect data, but that we perhaps need to be smarter about how we analyze it, and how much we trust it.As I’ve argued (see Big Data And The Landfills Of The Digital Enterprise), I don’t think this is a matter of hiring expensive data scientists to interpret our data. Rather, I imagine it’s a matter of guiding our decisions – even those split-second “hunches” that Gladwell talks about in Blink – through data, without becoming consumed with data. Data kicks off the right questions; data doesn’t resolve disputes.Just ask Musk and Broder: both absolutely convinced they’re right, and both with ample data on their respective sides to prove it.Image courtesy of Shutterstock. A Comprehensive Guide to a Content Audit Facebook is Becoming Less Personal and More Pro…last_img read more

Video Editing: Speech Analysis in Adobe Premiere Pro

first_imgUsing Adobe Story with Premiere Pro makes the Speech Analysis very powerful and was a time saver for me on several doc projects where I was able to attach a professional transcript and quickly navigate to what the speaker said.What we’re seeing is just the beginning of speech recognition in video editing apps.  It will be exciting to see what advancements will be made in the near future.  When used properly, Speech Analysis can be a great tool to cut down your time in post by organizing and streamlining the process of locating footage.Are you using Premiere’s Speech Analysis?Share your thoughts/experiences in the comments below! Speed up your video editing workflow in Adobe Premiere Pro by using Speech Analysis to navigate to specific words and clips in your project.Speech Analysis is becoming a popular option in video editing applications these days. It can save you time if you are dealing with large amounts of footage, by allowing you to quickly locate a line of dialogue or subject matter in your video clips.Avid Media Composer offers speech analysis and recognition as an additional purchase.  If you want quality speech analysis in Final Cut Pro X you’ll need to pony up for an additional plugin.  The folks at Adobe have made speech analysis easily accessible by including it in Premiere Pro CS6.Like all speech recognition programs, the quality can be a bit hit or miss depending on the speaker and the quality of the recording.  However, after an initial analysis you can make changes manually or add the script to Adobe Story to improve the results.  In this post we take a look at how to apply Speech Analysis in Premiere Pro, how to use it in conjunction with in and out markers and how to attach a script to your Premiere project.Step 1: Analyze ContentWhen working with speech recognition in Premiere I recommend setting your workspace to Metalogging (Window > Workspace > Metalogging).  Then, select the clip or multiple clips in  your project, right click and select “Analyze Content”.In the Analyze Content panel check Speech and set the quality to High, leaving the rest unchecked.  Then, click OK.  Note: If you want to attach a script from Adobe Story be sure to check the “Use Embedded Adobe Story Script” box.Adobe Media Encoder will launch and encode the Speech Analysis.  As a timesaving benefit, you can continue to work in Premiere Pro while Media Encoder runs in the background.After the Speech Analysis is complete, you will see the results in the Speech Analysis panel.  Click the Play button (shortcut: spacebar) and each word turns blue when it’s played.Again, it’s worth noting that the quality of your speech analysis in Premiere will largely depend on the clarity of the on-screen speaker, background noise in the footage and the quality of the recording (high quality vs low quality microphone).  You can delete/merge/insert a word by right clicking on a clip.To change a word click on it twice and then type the new word.Navigating Footage Using Speech AnalysisNow, when working with analyzed footage I usually change my workspace back to the default editing layout. I moved the Metadata panel to the side of the Source Monitor, so I can see both at once.I save this as custom workspace called “Script Editing” – a timesaver when you’re doing this process often.I can now use Speech Analysis to find specific parts of my interview, and this will save me time, especially with longer interviews.  You can also edit the footage directly off the script.  Select a word, press I to set an In, then find the word you want to end on and press O. The area you have selected turns yellow.Then click the Insert or Overwrite icons in the Source Window or Analysis Speech panel to edit the clip into your sequence.  This is a really quick way to assemble rough cut edits in Premiere Pro.  You can always tweak the exact in and out in the video off your timeline later.Insert/Overwrite IconsIf you’re more inclined to create subclips of your footage (great for organization) you can also do this with “In and Out” and then from the menu bar Clip > Make Subclip.  When working with a large amount of interview footage I prefer to use the speech analysis information as a guide in creating my subclips.I can also mark sections of the clip by adding markers to the script. Click on the word in the Speech Analysis panel where you want to set a marker, then click on the Source Monitor and press M to create the marker.  Very useful for taking notes during an edit.Improving Speech Analysis with StoryIf you are doing doc work or scripted film/TV work you can use Adobe Story to increase the accuracy of Speech Analysis.  Adobe Story is an online Service, but it can also be downloaded as an app to work offline.  There is a free Version called Story Free, while the full Adobe Story is part of the Adobe Creative Cloud. Check out the Adobe Help for details on using Speech Analysis in Story.Let’s take a quick look at the process of using story with your Scripts.  First, in Adobe Story click the “+ New” icon to create a new script.For narrative projects you can import scripts created in other apps. If I am doing a documentary , I can paste a transcription of the text into the script.To get this to work in Premiere Pro you have to add scene numbers (scene numbers are marked in blue):The easiest way to do this is to click on Production > Manage Scene Numbers in Adobe Story and add scenes automatically.Click image for larger view: When you are done with your script, export it in the .astx format.  Now, in Premiere Pro when you analyze the script click the “use embedded Adobe Story script.”In my example the transcript matched what the speaker was saying so I checked “Script Text Matches Recorded Dialogue”.last_img read more

SMB’s Ross makes mental health a personal advocacy

first_imgOil plant explodes in Pampanga town LATEST STORIES Dela Cruz, on the other hand, had himself as an example.“We’re men and we’re taught to be strong and to hold your feelings in and not to let your emotions out. Don’t get checked up for this, don’t get checked up for that, but life is tough for some people and you go through things. It is not easy for everyone,” he said.“I made some really bad choices. I lost my wife, I lost my kids, I’m trying to keep up my life again. But I wished somebody would have talked to me early on as a player to say that if you’re hurting or if you’re going through something, you need to talk to somebody, we put some phone numbers up here,” Dela Cruz shared.“I’m just one guy that has a voice. All it takes is one to reach out.”Sports Related Videospowered by AdSparcRead Next ‘We are too hospitable,’ says Sotto amid SEA Games woes US judge bars Trump’s health insurance rule for immigrants “There’s 24 hours in a day and we’re spending that training with basketball for maybe five to six hours,” Ross said of a basketball player’s life.“But the other 18 hours? You’re in life. Life’s real and life’s hard. It’s more than just basketball,” Ross said during the recent Philippine Basketball Association (PBA) Player Orientation program.FEATURED STORIESSPORTSPrivate companies step in to help SEA Games hostingSPORTSUrgent reply from Philippine ‍football chiefSPORTSPalace wants Cayetano’s PHISGOC Foundation probed over corruption chargesThe 31-year-old playmaker is currently using his voice to push for mental health awareness—a topic that many players have eluded talking about.Ross was joined by former Alaska big man Tony dela Cruz in the event. The pair walked PBA players through the delicate matter and suggested ways on how to approach it. Private companies step in to help SEA Games hosting Professional basketball players, like ordinary persons, also grapple with the same problems many deem reserved for non-athletes.San Miguel Beer’s Chris Ross hopes to blot out the notion that they are immune from everyday issues.ADVERTISEMENT Tabuena eyeing third PH Open jewel Grace Poe files bill to protect govt teachers from malicious accusationscenter_img Don’t miss out on the latest news and information. Urgent reply from Philippine ‍football chief MOST READ SEA Games hosting troubles anger Duterte Leo Austria, SMB wary of ‘more experienced’ Hotshots ahead of PBA Finals rematch PLAY LIST 01:33Leo Austria, SMB wary of ‘more experienced’ Hotshots ahead of PBA Finals rematch01:28’Walang bigayan’: Expect all-out war between sister teams Magnolia, San Miguel01:08Palace: No need to release Duterte medical bulletin02:42PH underwater hockey team aims to make waves in SEA Games01:44Philippines marks anniversary of massacre with calls for justice01:19Fire erupts in Barangay Tatalon in Quezon City01:07Trump talks impeachment while meeting NCAA athletes02:49World-class track facilities installed at NCC for SEA Games02:11Trump awards medals to Jon Voight, Alison Krauss PDEA chief backs Robredo in revealing ‘discoveries’ on drug war “A lot of people see this as we are just basketball players, well a lot of people have families, a lot of people have businesses,” the playmaker said.“I had two really close friends in the US … And then when I came back here, I had another close friend that actually took her life,” Ross revealed to reporters.“So when you’re growing up, you kind of think that those kind of things will never affect you, that they’re never going to get close to you. But the longer you live and the more people you’re around, things like that do get to you,” he added.Ross slowly stepped into the role of a poster boy for his advocacy when he sought for the PBA fans to “just go check on people”  in a heart-felt post-game interview televised across the nation earlier this month.Ross’ motivation comes from two friends who struggled in coping, and another who actually took his life.ADVERTISEMENT View commentslast_img read more